Wed. May 22nd, 2024


  • Max Pain Scenario: Samson Mow (@Excellion) speculates on the unexpected consequences of Bitcoin rapidly surging to $1 million in a matter of days to weeks.

The Disruptive Power of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s Unpredictability

Bitcoin has a knack for defying expectations and disrupting plans. Mow outlines how a swift ascent to $1M BTC could cause widespread disruption.

Potential Consequences

1. Onboarding Nation-States

Ideally, @JAN3com has planned a gradual onboarding of nation-states. A rapid spike in Bitcoin’s value would overwhelm the team as 50 countries urgently seek involvement, disrupting meticulous planning.

2. S2F Model Dilemma

A fast climb challenges the Stock-to-Flow model by @100trillionUSD, causing unexpected shifts. This unpredictability adds an element of “max pain.”

3. Lightning Network Challenges

Fast appreciation renders Lightning Network unusable for non-custodial wallet users. High fees deter new Bitcoin users from joining, creating a scenario of maximum inconvenience.

4. MicroStrategy’s Goal

A swift $1M Bitcoin means MicroStrategy and @saylor fall short of stacking 1% of the supply, altering their strategic plans but still propelling MSTR into the top 30 most valuable companies globally.

5. El Salvador’s Missed Opportunity

El Salvador and other nations miss the chance to issue #BitcoinBonds and accumulate substantial BTC stacks at sub-100k values, impacting their economic strategies.

6. Economic Shake-Up

High-profile figures like Lagarde, Powell, and respected economists losing their jobs could be an unexpected consequence. Hyperbitcoinization and fiat hyperinflation might follow 1-2 years after $1M Bitcoin.

7. Schiff and Goldbugs

Bitcoin reaching $1M fast induces a collective mental breakdown for Peter Schiff and gold enthusiasts. Gold remains relatively stagnant around $2k.

8. Pleb Challenges

Individuals face challenges, from holding unspendable UTXOs to making hasty selling decisions, experiencing maximum pain during the volatile ascent.

9. Missed Opportunities for 8 Billion People

A rapid rise means 8 billion people miss a crucial opportunity to get into Bitcoin when it could’ve made a significant economic difference, limiting them to earning BTC instead.

10. Financial System Overhaul

The legacy financial system must hastily reorganize around Bitcoin as the new base, businesses need to adapt to LN/LQ payments, and companies must rapidly convert cash reserves to BTC, creating widespread disarray.


Samson Mow’s thought-provoking analysis emphasizes the potential domino effect of Bitcoin swiftly reaching $1 million. This “max pain” scenario underlines the unpredictability and disruptive nature of Bitcoin, highlighting its capacity to reshape economic landscapes. As the crypto world watches for unexpected moves, the journey to $1M Bitcoin may hold more surprises than anticipated.

By Julia

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